Доклад: Climate change

Доклад: Climate change

Report on The State Department Climate Action: Introduction and Overview

International Activities

No single country can resolve the problem of global climate change.

Recognizing this, the United States is engaged in many activities to

facilitate closer international cooperation. To this end, the U.S. government

has actively participated in international research and assessment efforts

(e.g., through the IPCC), in efforts to develop and implement a global

climate change strategy (through the FCCC Conference of the Parties and its

varied subsidiary bodies and through the Climate Technology Initiative), and

by providing financial and technical assistance to developing countries to

facilitate development of mitigation and sequestration strategies (e.g.,

through the Global Environment Facility (GEF)). Bilateral and multilateral

opportunities are currently being implemented, with some designed to

capitalize on the technological capabilities of the private sector, and

others to work on a government-to-government basis.

In the existing Convention framework, the United States has seconded

technical experts to the FCCC secretariat to help implement methodological,

technical, and technological activities. U.S. experts review national

communications of other Parties and are helping to advance the development of

methodologies for inventorying national emissions.

The United States has been active in promoting next steps under the

Convention. It has encouraged all countries to take appropriate analyses of

their own circumstances before taking action--and then act on these analyses.

It has suggested--and, where possible, has demonstrated--flexible and robust

institutional systems through which actions can be taken, such as programs to

implement emission-reduction activities jointly between Parties, and

emission-trading programs. The United States has also sought to use its best

diplomatic efforts to prod those in the international community reluctant to

act, seeking to provide assurances that the issue is critical and warrants

global attention. Through these efforts, the ongoing negotiations are

expected to successfully conclude in late 1997. The successful implementation

of the Convention and a new legal instrument will ensure that the potential

hazards of climate change will never be realized.

As a major donor to the GEF, the United States has contributed approximately

$190 million to help developing countries meet the incremental costs of

protecting the global environment. Although the United States is behind in

the voluntary payment schedule agreed upon during the GEF replenishment

adopted in 1994, plans have been made to pay off these arrears.

The principles of the U.S. development assistance strategy lie at the heart

of U.S. bilateral mitigation projects. These principles include the concepts

of conservation and cultural respect, as well as empowerment of local

citizenry. The U.S. government works primarily through the U.S. Agency for

International Development (USAID). In fact, mitigation of global climate

change is one of USAID's two global environmental priorities. Other agencies

working in the climate change field, including the Environmental Protection

Agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the

Departments of Agriculture and Energy, are also active internationally.

Projects fit into various general categories, such as increasing the

efficiency of power operation and use, adopting renewable-energy

technologies, reducing air pollution, improving agricultural and livestock

practices, and decreasing deforestation and improving land use.

Perhaps none of the U.S. programs is as well known as the U.S. Country

Studies Program. The program is currently assisting fifty-five developing

countries and countries with economies in transition to market economies with

climate change studies intended to build human and institutional capacity to

address climate change. Through its Support for National Action Plans, the

program is supporting the preparation of national climate action plans for

eighteen developing countries, which will lay the foundation for their

national communication, as required by the FCCC. More than twenty-five

additional countries have requested similar assistance from the Country

Studies Program.

The United States is also committed to facilitating the commercial transfer

of energy-efficient and renewable-energy technologies that can help

developing countries achieve sustainable development. Under the auspices of

the Climate Technology Initiative, the U.S. has taken a lead role in a task

force on Energy Technology Networking and Capacity Building, the efforts of

which focus on increasing the availability of reliable climate change

technologies, developing options for improving access to data in developing

countries, and supporting experts in the field around the world. The United

States is also engaged in various other projects intended to help countries

with mitigation and adaptation issues. The International Activities chapter

focuses on the most important of these U.S. efforts.

Introduction and Overview

Since the historic gathering of representatives from 172 countries at the

Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992, issues of environmental

protection have remained high on national and international priorities.

Climate change is one of the most visible of these issues--and one in which

some of the most significant progress has been made since the 1992 session.

Perhaps the crowning achievement in Rio was the adoption of the United

Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). This Convention

represented a shared commitment by nations around the world to reduce the

potential risks of a major global environmental problem. Its ultimate

objective is to:

Achieve ¼ stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the

atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic human

interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within

a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate

change, to ensure that food production is not threatened, and to enable

economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

However, since the 1992 Earth Summit, the global community has found that

actions to mitigate climate change will need to be more aggressive than

anticipated. At the same time, the rationale for action has proven more

compelling. Few "Annex I" countries (the Climate Convention's term for

developed countries, including Organization for Economic Cooperation and

Development (OECD) member countries and countries with economies in

transition to market economies) have demonstrated an ability to meet the

laudable, albeit nonbinding, goal of the Convention--"to return emissions of

greenhouse gases to their 1990 levels by the end of the decade." While

voluntary programs have demonstrated that substantial reductions are

achievable at economic savings or low costs, the success of these programs

has been overshadowed by lower-than-expected energy prices as well as higher-

than-expected economic growth and electricity demand, among other factors.

Recognizing that even the most draconian measures would likely be

insufficient to reverse the growth in greenhouse gases and return U.S.

emissions to their 1990 levels by the year 2000, new U.S. efforts are

focusing most intensively on the post-2000 period. Thus, while some new

voluntary actions have already been proposed (and are included in this

report), an effort to develop a comprehensive program to address rising U.S.

greenhouse gas emissions is being developed in the context of the ongoing

treaty negotiations and will be reported in the next U.S. communication.

In spite of difficulties in meeting a domestic goal to return emissions to

their 1990 levels, the U.S. commitment to addressing the climate change

problem remains a high priority. President Clinton, in remarks made in

November 1996, both underlined U.S. concerns and exhorted the nations of the

world to act:

“We must work to reduce harmful greenhouse gas emissions. These gases

dangerous global warming if we begin today and if we begin together.”

Difficulties in meeting the "aim" of the Climate Convention prompted the

international community, gathered at the first meeting of the Conference of

the Parties to the FCCC (held in Berlin, Germany, in March 1995), to agree on

a new approach to addressing the climate change problem. At their first

session, the Parties decided to negotiate a new legal instrument containing

appropriate next steps under the Convention. At the Second Conference of the

Parties (COP-2), the United States expressed its view that the new agreement

should include three main elements:

· a realistic and achievable binding target (instead of the hortatory

goals and nonbinding aims of the existing Convention),

· flexibility in implementation, and

· the participation of developing countries.

Each of these elements was included in a Ministerial Declaration agreed to at

COP-2, and the United States expects that a legal instrument containing these

elements will be one of the outcomes from the Third Conference of the

Parties, to be held in Kyoto, Japan, in December 1997.

As international negotiations continue on a new legal commitment, the United

States is assessing options for a domestic program. The results of this

analytical effort are being used to inform the U.S. negotiating positions,

and will subsequently be used to develop compliance strategies to meet any

commitments established under the new regime.

While the Parties involved in the negotiations are determining next steps for

collective action, all countries are still actively pursuing the programs

adopted earlier in the decade to control emissions. This document describes

the current U.S. program. It represents the second formal U.S. communication

under the FCCC, as required under Articles 4.2 and 12. As with the Climate

Action Report published by the United States in 1994, it is a "freeze frame"-

-a look at the current moment in time in the U.S. program. This report does

not predict additional future activities. Nor is it intended to be a

substitute for existing or future decision-making processes--whether

administrative or legislative--or for additional measures developed by or

with the private sector.

This document has been developed using the methodologies and format agreed to

at the first meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the FCCC, and

modified by the second meeting of the Conference of the Parties and by

sessions of the Convention's Subsidiary Body on Scientific and Technological

Advice and the Subsidiary Body on Implementation. The United States assumes

that this communication, like those of other countries--and like the

preceding U.S. communication--will be subject to a thorough review, and

discussed in the evaluation process for the Parties of the Convention. Even

though the measures listed in this report are not expected to reduce U.S.

emissions below 1990 levels by the year 2000, the United States believes that

many of the climate change actions being implemented have been successful at

reducing emissions, send valuable signals to the private sector, and may be

appropriate models for other countries. The U.S. experience should also

ensure that future efforts are more effective in reversing the rising trend

of emissions and returning U.S. emissions to more environmentally sustainable

levels.

The Science

The 1992 Convention effort was largely predicated on the scientific and

technical information produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC) in its 1990 report. The IPCC consists of more than two thousand

of the world's best scientists with expertise in the physical, social, and

economic sciences relevant to the climate issue. The United States stands

firmly behind the IPCC's conclusions. As the actions being taken by the

United States ultimately depend on the nation's understanding of the science,

it is important to at least briefly review this information here.

The Earth absorbs energy from the sun in the form of solar radiation. About

one-third is reflected, and the rest is absorbed by different components of

the climate system, including the atmosphere, the oceans, the land surface,

and the biota. The incoming energy is balanced over the long term by outgoing

radiation from the Earth-atmosphere system, with outgoing radiation taking

the form of long-wave, invisible infrared energy. The magnitude of this

outgoing radiation is affected in part by the temperature of the Earth-

atmosphere system.

Several human and natural activities can change the balance between the

energy absorbed by the Earth and that emitted in the form of long-wave

infrared radiation. On the natural side, these include changes in solar

radiation (the sun's energy varies by small amounts--approximately 0.1

percent over an eleven-year cycle--and variations over longer periods also

occur). They also include volcanic eruptions, injecting huge clouds of

sulfur-containing gases, which tend to cool the Earth's surface and

atmosphere over a few years. On the human-induced side, the balance can be

changed by emissions from land-use changes and industrial practices that add

or remove "heat-trapping" or "greenhouse" gases, thus changing atmospheric

absorption of radiation.

Greenhouse gases of policy significance include carbon dioxide (CO2);

methane (CH4); nitrous oxide (N2O); the

chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and their substitutes, including hydrofluorocarbons

(HFCs); the long-lived fully fluorinated hydrocarbons, such as perfluorocarbons

(PFCs); and ozone (O3). Although most of these gases occur naturally

(the exceptions are the CFCs, their substitutes, and the long-lived PFCs), the

concentrations of all of these gases are changing as a result of human

activities.

For example, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has risen about

30 percent since the 1700s--an increase responsible for more than half of the

enhancement of the trapping of the infrared radiation due to human

activities. In addition to their steady rise, many of these greenhouse gases

have long atmospheric residence times (several decades to centuries), which

means that atmospheric levels of these gases will return to preindustrial

levels only if emissions are sharply reduced, and even then only after a long

time. Internationally accepted science indicates that increasing

concentrations of greenhouse gases will raise atmospheric and oceanic

temperatures and could alter associated weather and circulation patterns.

In a report synthesizing its second assessment and focusing on the relevance

of its scientific analyses to the ultimate objective of the Convention, the

IPCC concluded:

· Human activities--including the burning of fossil fuels, land use,

and agriculture--are changing the atmospheric composition. Taken together,

they are projected to lead to changes in global and regional climate and

climate-related parameters, such as temperature, precipitation, and soil

moisture.

· Some human communities--particularly those with limited access to

mitigating technologies--are becoming more vulnerable to natural hazards and

can be expected to suffer significantly from the impacts of climate-related

changes, such as high-temperature events, floods, and droughts, potentially

resulting in fires, pest outbreaks, ecosystem loss, and an overall reduction

in the level of primary productivity.

The IPCC also concluded that, given the current trends in emissions, global

concentrations of greenhouse gases are likely to grow significantly through

the next century and beyond, and the adverse impacts from these changes will

become greater. The remainder of this report seeks to elucidate the programs,

policies, and measures being taken in the United States to begin moving away

from this trend of increasing emissions, and to help move the world away from

the trend of globally increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases.

Principal Conclusions of the IPCC's Second Assessment Report While the basic facts about the science of climate have been understood and broadly accepted for years, new information is steadily emerging--and influencing the policy process. In 1995, the IPCC released its Second Assessment Report, which not only validated most of the IPCC's earlier findings, but because of the considerable new work that had been undertaken during the five years since its previous full-scale assessment, broke new ground. The report is divided into three sections: physical sciences related to climate impacts; adaptation and mitigation responses; and cross-cutting issues, including economics and social sciences. The Climate Science · Human activities are changing the atmospheric concentrations and distributions of greenhouse gases and aerosols. · Global average temperatures have increased about 0.3-0.6°C (about 0.5-1.0°F) over the last century. · The ability of climate models to simulate observed trends has improved--although there is still considerable regional uncertainty with regard to changes. · The balance of evidence suggests there is a discernible human influence on global climate. · Aerosol sulfates (a component of acid rain) offset some of the warming by greenhouse gases. · The IPCC mid-range scenario projects an increase of 2.0°C (3.7°F) by 2100 (with a range of 1.0-3.5°C (about 1.8-6.3°F). · The average global warming projected in the IPCC mid-range scenario is greater than any seen in the last ten thousand years. · Sea level is projected to rise (due to thermal expansion of the oceans, and melting of glaciers and ice sheets) by about 50 centimeters (20 inches) by 2100, with a range of 15-95 centimeters (about 6-38 inches). · Even after a stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations, temperatures would continue to increase for several decades, and sea level would continue to rise for centuries. Vulnerability, Likely Impacts, and Possible Responses · Climate change is likely to have wide-ranging and mostly adverse effects on human health. Direct and indirect effects can be expected to lead to increased mortality. · Coastal infrastructure is likely to be extremely vulnerable. A 50-centimeter (20-inch) rise in sea level would place approximately 120 million people at risk. · Natural and managed ecosystems are also at risk: forests, agricultural areas, and aquatic and marine life are all susceptible. · However, adaptation and mitigation options are numerous. Significant reductions in net greenhouse gas emissions are technically possible and can be economically feasible, using an extensive array of technologies and policy measures that accelerate technology development, diffusion, and transfer. Socioeconomic Issues · Early mitigation may increase flexibility in moving toward a stabilization of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. Economic risks of rapid abatement must be balanced against risks of delay. · Significant "no regrets" opportunities are available in most countries. Next steps must recognize equity considerations. · Costs of stabilization of emissions at 1990 levels in OECD countries could range considerably (from a gain of $60 billion to a loss of about $240 billion) over the next several decades.

National Circumstances

In responding to the threat of global climate change, U.S. policymakers must

consider the special circumstances created by a unique blend of challenges

and opportunities. The National Circumstances chapter of this report attempts

to explain the particular situation in the United States--including its

climate, natural resources, population trends, economy, energy mix, and

political system--as a backdrop for understanding the U.S. perspective on

global climate change.

The United States is unusual in that it encompasses a wide variety of climate

conditions within its borders, from subtropical to tundra. This diversity

complicates the discussion of impacts of global climate change within the

United States because those impacts would vary widely. This diversity also

adds to U.S. emission levels, as heating and cooling demands drive up

emissions. Recent record levels of precipitation--both in snowfall and rain--

consistent with what could be expected under a changed climate, have raised

the awareness of climate impacts at the local and regional levels, and may

make it somewhat easier to predict the effects of increased precipitation.

The United States also is uncommonly rich in land resources, both in extent

and diversity. U.S. land area totals about 931 million hectares (2.3 billion

acres), including grassland pasture and range, forest, and cropland. Forested

land has been increasing, while grasslands and croplands are slowly declining

and being converted to other uses. The decline in wetlands has slowed

significantly as a result of the "no net loss" policy being implemented.

With just over 265 million people, the United States is the third most

populous country in the world, although population density varies widely

throughout the country, and is generally very low. Although population

increase is moderate from a global perspective, it is high relative to the

average for all industrialized countries. Moreover, the number of households

is growing rapidly. These and other factors drive U.S. emissions to higher

per capita rates than those in most other countries with higher population

densities, smaller land areas, or more concentrated distribution of resources

to population centers.

The U.S. market economy is based on property rights and a reliance on the

efficiency of the market as a means of allocating resources. The government

plays a key role in addressing market failures and promoting social welfare,

including through the imposition of regulations on pollutants and the

protection of property rights, but is cautious in its interventions. Thus,

the infrastructure exists to limit emissions of greenhouse gases--although

the strong political and economic preference is to undertake such controls

through flexible and cost-effective programs, including voluntary programs

and market instruments, where appropriate.

U.S. economic growth averaged 3 percent annually from 1960 to 1993, and

employment nearly tripled as the overall labor force participation rate rose

to 66 percent. The service sector--which includes communications, utilities,

finance, insurance, and real estate--has grown rapidly, and now accounts for

more than 36 percent of the economy. The increasing role of trade in the U.S.

economy heightens concerns about the competitiveness effects of climate

policies.

During the 1980s, the U.S. budget deficit grew rapidly, as did the ratio of

debt to gross domestic product, and a political consensus emerged on the goal

of a balanced budget. The result is a tighter federal budget with many

competing priorities.

The United States is the world's largest energy producer and consumer.

Abundant resources of all fossil fuels have contributed to low prices and

specialization in relatively energy-intensive activities. Energy consumption

has nearly doubled since 1960, and would have grown far more, because of

growth in the economy, population, and transportation needs, had it not been

for impressive reductions in U.S. energy intensity. Industrial energy

intensity has declined most markedly, due to structural shifts and efficiency

improvements. In the residential and commercial sectors, efficiency

improvements largely offset the growth in the number and size of both

residential and commercial buildings. Likewise, in the transportation sector,

efficiency moderated the rise in total fuel consumption from 1973 to 1995 to

only 26 percent, despite dramatic increases in both the number of vehicles

and the distances they are driven. Fossil fuel prices below levels assumed in

the 1993 Climate Change Action Plan, however, have contributed to the

unexpectedly large growth in U.S. emissions.

While unique national circumstances point to the reasons for the current

levels (and increases) in U.S. emissions, they also suggest the potential for

emission reductions. Successful government and private-sector programs are

beginning to exploit some of the inefficiencies in the manufacturing sector.

The development of new, climate-friendly technologies is a rapidly growing

industry, with significant long-term potential for domestic and international

emission reductions.

Greenhouse Gas Inventory

Inventorying the national emissions of greenhouse gases is a task shared by

several departments within the executive branch of the federal government,

including the Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of Energy and

the Department of Agriculture. The Greenhouse Gas Inventory chapter

summarizes the most current information on U.S. greenhouse gas emission

trends--and represents the 1997 submission from the United States in

fulfillment of its annual inventory reporting obligation. The estimates

presented in this chapter were compiled using methods consistent with those

recommended by the IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories;

therefore, the U.S. emissions inventory should be comparable to those

submitted by others under the FCCC.

Table 1-1 summarizes the recent trends in U.S. greenhouse gas emissions from

1990 to 1995. The three most important anthropogenic greenhouse gases are

carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N

2O). Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are also inventoried. Consistent with the

requirements in the Climate Convention only to address emissions of gases not

controlled by the Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer,

chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) emissions are not inventoried, nor are mitigation

measures for these compounds described.

Table 1-1 Recent Trends in U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 1990-1995 (MMTs of Carbon Equivalent)
Gases and Sources	Emissions--Direct and Indirect Effects
	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995
Carbon Dioxide (CO2)	1,228	1,213	1,235	1,268	1,291	1,305
Fossil Fuel Combustion	1,336	1,320	1,340	1,370	1,391	1,403
Industrial Processes and Other	17	16	17	18	19	19
Total	1,353	1,336	1,357	1,388	1,410	1,422
Forests (sink)*	(125)	(123)	(122)	(120)	(119)	(117)
Methane (CH4)	170	172	173	171	176	177
Landfills	56	58	58	60	62	64
Agriculture	50	51	52	52	54	55
Coal Mining	24	23	22	20	21	20
Oil and Natural Gas Systems	33	33	34	33	33	33
Other	6	7	7	6	6	6
Nitrous Oxide (N2O)	36	37	37	38	39	40
Agriculture	17	17	17	18	18	18
Fossil Fuel Consumption	11	11	12	12	12	12
Industrial Processes	8	8	8	8	9	9
HFCs	12	12	13	14	17	21
PFCs	5	5	5	5	7	8
SF6	7	7	8	8	8	8
U.S. Emissions	1,583	1,570	1,592	1,624	1,657	1,676
Net U.S. Emissions	1,458	1,447	1,470	1,504	1,538	1,559
Note: The totals presented in the summary tables in this chapter may not equal the sum of the individual source categories due to rounding. * These estimates for the conterminous United States for 1990-91 and 1993-95 are interpolated from forest inventories in 1987 and 1992 and from projections through 2040. The calculation method reflects long-term averages, rather than specific events in any given year.

Overall, U.S. greenhouse gas emissions have increased annually by just over

one percent. The trend of U.S. emissions--which decreased from 1990 to 1991,

and then increased again in 1992--is a consequence of changes in total energy

consumption resulting from the U.S. economic slowdown in the beginning of

this decade and its subsequent recovery.

Carbon dioxide accounts for the largest share of U.S. greenhouse

gases--approximately 85 percent--although the carbon sinks in forested lands

offset CO2 emissions by about 8 percent. During 1990-95, greenhouse

gas emissions continued to rise in the United States, with CO2

increasing approximately 6 percent, methane approximately 4 percent, N2

O nearly 10 percent, and HFCs approximately 7 percent. Fossil fuel combustion

accounts for 99 percent of total U.S. CO2 emissions. (Chapter 3 of

this report explains the use of MMTCE in converting emissions of greenhouse

gases to carbon equivalents.)

Although methane emissions are lower than CO2 emissions, methane's

footprint is large: in a 100-year time span it is considered to be twenty-one

times more effective than CO2 at trapping heat in the atmosphere and

is responsible for about 10 percent of the warming caused by U.S. emissions. In

addition, in the last two centuries alone, methane concentrations in the

atmosphere have more than doubled. Emissions of methane are largely generated

by landfills, agriculture, oil and natural gas systems, and coal mining, with

landfills comprising the single largest source of the gas. In 1995, methane

emissions from U.S. landfills were 63.5 MMTCE, equaling approximately 36

percent of total U.S. methane emissions. Agriculture supplied about 30 percent

of U.S. methane emissions in that same year.

Nitrous oxide is also emitted in much smaller amounts than carbon dioxide in

the United States and is responsible for approximately 2.4 percent of the

U.S. share of the greenhouse effect. However, like methane, it is a more

powerful heat trap--310 times more powerful than carbon dioxide at trapping

heat in the atmosphere over a 100-year period. The main anthropogenic

activities producing nitrous oxide are agriculture, fossil fuel combustion,

and the production of adipic and nitric acids. Figures from 1995 show the

agricultural sector emitting 46 percent of the total (18.4 MMTCE), with

fossil fuel combustion generating 31 percent.

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are among the compounds introduced to replace

ozone-depleting substances, which are being phased out as a result of the

Vienna Convention and its Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the

Ozone Layer, and the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. Because HFCs have

significant potential to alter the Earth's radiative balance, they are

included in this inventory. Many of the compounds of this nature are

extremely stable and remain in the atmosphere for extended periods of time,

which results in a significant atmospheric accumulation over time. U.S.

emissions of these gases have risen nearly 60 percent as they are phased in

as substitutes for gases that are no longer allowed under the Montreal

Protocol--a rate of growth that is not anticipated to continue. Currently,

HFCs account for less than 2 percent of U.S. radiative forcing.

Mitigating Climate Change

In October 1993, in response to the threat of global climate change,

President Clinton and Vice President Gore announced the Climate Change Action

Plan (CCAP). The Plan was designed to reduce U.S. emissions of greenhouse

gases, while guiding the U.S. economy toward environmentally sound economic

growth into the next century. This report updates the programs in the CCAP

(including an appendix providing one-page descriptions of each program),

describes several additional initiatives developed to further reduce emission

growth rates, and estimates future emissions based on the current set of

practices and programs.

CCAP programs represent an effort to stimulate actions that are both

profitable for individual private-sector participants as well as beneficial

to the environment. Currently, more than forty programs are in effect,

combining efforts of the government at the federal, state, and local levels

with those of the private sector. The CCAP has five goals: preserving the

environment, enhancing sustainable growth environmentally and economically,

building partnerships, involving the public, and encouraging international

emission reductions.

Carbon dioxide emissions constitute the bulk of U.S. greenhouse gas

emissions. CCAP recognizes that investing in energy efficiency is the most

cost-effective way to reduce these emissions. The largest proportion of CCAP

programs contains measures that reduce carbon dioxide emissions while

simultaneously enhancing domestic productivity and competitiveness. Other

programs seek to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by investing in renewable-

energy and other low-carbon, energy-supply technologies, which will also

provide longer-term benefits, such as increased efficiency and related cost-

savings and pollution prevention. A smaller number of programs are targeted

at methane, nitrous oxide, and other greenhouse gases (Table 1-2).

A review and update of the CCAP was initiated in 1995, involving a federal

government interagency review process and a public hearing and comment

period. Revisions to the CCAP (and to the calculation of the effects of its

measures) were initiated in light of comments received during this process

and are reflected in this document. In addition, as called for under FCCC

reporting guidelines, the projections of the effects of measures taken are

extended to the year 2020, with the understanding that uncertainties become

greater in more distant years.

One of the principal products of the review was an assessment of the

effectiveness of the CCAP programs, which were rated to be successful at

reducing emissions. Currently, more than 5,000 organizations are

participating in programs around the United States. The pollution-prevention

benefits of these innovative programs are beginning to multiply rapidly in

response to the groundwork laid and the partnerships made. In all, the

programs are expected to achieve a large portion of the reductions projected

in the CCAP. In fact, it is estimated that these programs will result in

energy cost savings of $10 billion annually in 2000.

However, the review has also made clear the significantly reduced impact to

be expected from the programs as a result of the nearly 40 percent reduction

of CCAP funding by Congress from the amount requested by the President,

higher-than-expected electricity demand, and lower-than-expected energy

prices. In addition, before the programs' implementation, CCAP program

managers could not always anticipate the impacts of projected climate change

emission reductions. Information available from the first tranche of activity

was considered in developing the current projections.

A second product of the review was the identification of several measures

that have since been added to the CCAP portfolio. The most significant of

these is the Environmental Stewardship Initiative, which greatly expands

activities already included in the CCAP, and focuses on reducing the

emissions of extremely potent greenhouse gases from three industrial

applications--semiconductor production, electrical transmission and

distribution systems, and magnesium casting. The expanded initiative is

anticipated to reduce emissions by an additional 6.5 MMTCE by 2000, and 10.0

MMTCE by 2010. Other programs include improving energy efficiency in the

construction of and supply of energy to commercial and industrial buildings,

expanding residential markets for energy-efficient lighting products, and

providing information on renewable energy to reduce barriers to the adoption

of clean technologies.

The analysis of individual actions is integrated with revised forecasts of

economic growth, energy prices, program funding, and regulatory developments

to provide an updated comprehensive perspective on current and projected

greenhouse gas emission levels. This analysis involved an updating of the

baseline calculation in light of new economic assumptions regarding energy

prices, economic growth, and technology improvements, among other factors. In

1993, the first U.S. submission projected year 2000 baseline emissions to be

106 MMTCE above their 1990 levels; with current program funding, emissions

are now projected to exceed 1990 levels by 188 MMTCE. Two principal factors

are responsible:

· The analysis used to develop CCAP significantly underestimated the

reductions that would be needed by programs to return emissions to 1990

levels by the year 2000. This was due to several factors, including lower-

than-expected fuel prices, strong economic growth, regulatory limitations

within and outside of CCAP, and improved information on emissions of some

potent greenhouse gases.

· In addition, diminished levels of funding by Congress have affected

both CCAP programs and other federal programs that reduce emissions, limiting

their effectiveness.

While neither the measures initiated in 1993 nor the additional actions

developed since then and included in this report will be adequate to meet the

emissions goal enunciated by the President, they have significantly reduced

emissions below growth rates that otherwise would have occurred. Based on

current funding levels, the revised action plan is expected to reduce

emissions by 76 MMTCE in the year 2000--or 70 percent of the reductions

projected in the CCAP. Annual energy cost savings to businesses and consumers

from CCAP actions are anticipated to be $10 billion (1995 dollars) by the

year 2000. Even greater reductions are estimated from these measures in the

post-2000 period: reductions of 169 MMTCE are projected for 2010, and 230

MMTCE for 2020. Annual energy savings are projected to grow to $50 billion

(1995 dollars) in the year 2010.

A separate component of this chapter addresses the U.S. Initiative on Joint

Implementation. Projects undertaken through this initiative allow private-

sector partners to offset emissions from domestic activities through

reductions achieved in other countries. The Climate Convention established a

pilot program for joint implementation at the first meeting of the Conference

of the Parties. Guidelines for reporting under the pilot program were

established by the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice at

its fifth session in February 1997. This report uses those guidelines to

report on project activity.

Table 1-2 Summary of Actions to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Million Metric Tons of Carbon Equivalent)
Action Number		Action Title			1993 Action Plan Estimate			Revised Estimate*
					2000			2000		2005		2010				2020
	Residential & Commercial Sector Actions		26.9	10.3									29.4		53.0		78.4
1	Rebuild America		2.0	1.6									3.0		6.3		7.1
1 & 2	Expanded Green Lights and Energy Star Buildings		3.6	3.4									8.5		16.3		30.2
3	State Revolving Fund for Public Buildings		1.1												Terminated
4	Cost-Shared Demonstrations of Emerging Technologies
5	Operation and Maintenance Training for Commercial Building Facility Managers and Operators		3.8	0.0									0.5		1.0		1.0
6	Energy Star® Products		5.0	4.3									12.9		19.4		24.9
7	Residential Appliance Standards		6.8	0.2									1.8		3.7		3.8
8 and 11	Energy Partnerships for Affordable Housing
9	Cool Communities		4.4	0.6									1.9		4.3		7.7
10	Update State Building Codes
New	Construction of Energy­Efficient Commercial and Industrial Buildings		Not included	0.1									0.4		1.1		2.6
New	Superwindow Collaborative		Not included	0.0									0.1		0.4		1.3
New	Expand Markets for Next­Generation Lighting Products		Not included	0.2									0.4		0.7		0.9
New	Fuel Cells Initiative		Not included	0.0									0.0		0.1		0.4
	Industrial Sector Actions		19.0	4.8									8.2		11.5		16.7
12	Motor Challenge		8.8	1.8									3.9		5.8		7.5
13	Industrial Golden Carrot Programs		2.9	Merged									into		Motor		Challenge (#12)
14	Accelerate the Adoption of Energy­Efficient Process Technologies			Terminated
15	Industrial Assessment Centers		0.5	CCAP									Component		Terminated
16	Waste Minimization**		4.2	2.1									3.6		5.0		8.4
17	Improve Efficiency of Fertilizer Nitrogen Use***		2.7	0.8									0.8		0.9		1.1
18	Reduce the Use of Pesticides			Terminated
	Transportation Sector Actions		8.1	5.3									11.5		15.5		22.1
19	Cash Value of Parking
20	Innovative Transportation Strategies		6.6	4.6									8.4		10.9		17.0
21	Telecommuting Program
22	Fuel Economy Labels for Tires		1.5	0.7									3.2		4.8		5.3
	Energy Supply Actions		10.8	1.3									3.7		7.0		18.9
23	Increase Natural Gas Share of Energy Use Through Federal Regulatory Reform		2.2	Terminated
24	Promote Seasonal Gas Use for Control of Nitrogen Oxides		2.8	0.5									0.0		0.0		0.0
25	High­Efficiency Gas Technologies		0.6	Terminated
26	Renewable­Energy Commercialization		0.8	0.3									2.9		5.6		16.4
27	Expand Utility Integrated Resource Planning		1.4	Terminated
28	Profitable Hydroelectric Efficiency Upgrades		2.0	0.0									0.0		0.0		0.0
29	Energy­Efficient Distribution Transformer Standards
30	Energy Star Distribution Transformers		0.8	0.5									0.8		1.4		2.8
31	Transmission Pricing Reform		0.8	Terminated
New	Green Power Network		Not Included	0.0									Not quantified
	Land-Use Change & Forestry Actions+		10.0	2.4									3.3		4.2		5.1
43	Reduce Depletion of Nonindustrial		4.0	Terminated
	Private Forests
44	Accelerate Tree Planting in		0.5	0.4									1.3		2.2		3.1
	Nonindustrial Private Forests
16	Waste Minimization**		4.2	2.0									2.0		2.0		2.0
9	Expand Cool Communities		0.5	Not quantified
	Methane Actions		16.3	15.5									19.0		23.4		24.2
32	Expand Natural Gas STAR		3.0	3.4									3.8		4.2		4.3
33	Increase Stringency of Landfill Rule		4.2	6.3									7.7		9.1		5.9
34	Landfill Methane Outreach Program		1.1	1.9									2.2		2.9		4.3
35	Coalbed Methane Outreach Program		2.2	2.6									2.9		3.2		4.0
36	RD&D for Coal Mine Methane		1.5	Terminated
37	RD&D for Landfill Methane		1.0	Terminated
38	AgSTAR Program		1.5	0.3									0.8		1.8		3.2
39	Ruminant Livestock Efficiency Program		1.8	1.0									1.6		2.2		2.5
	Actions to Address Other Greenhouse Gases		16.3	25.4									40.4		45.8		54.5
17	Improve Efficiency of Fertilizer Nitrogen Use***		4.5	5.3									5.3		5.3		5.3
40	Significant New Alternatives Program		5.0	6.4									19.6		23.1		29.8
41	HFC­23 Partnerships		5.0	5.0									5.0		5.0		5.0
42	Voluntary Aluminum Industrial Partnership		1.8	2.2									2.4		2.4		2.4
New	Environmental Stewardship Initiative		Not included	6.5									8.1		10.0		12.0
	Foundation Actions++			11.3									10.7		9.5		12.3
	Climate Wise		Not estimated	1.8									2.7		3.7		4.5
	Climate Challenge+++		Not estimated	7.6									5.0		1.6		1.5
	State and Local Outreach Programs		Not estimated	1.9									3.0		4.2		6.3
Total GHG Emission Reductions						108.6	76.0		128.3		169.3			229.5
From CCAP Programs
Notes: Several of the Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP) programs are part of larger federal efforts. These programs include Actions 2, 4, 6, 7, 15, 16, 27, 32, and 33. Only the CCAP portions of these programs are included in this table. Also, numbers may not add precisely due to interactive effects and rounding. * There is uncertainty in any attempt to project future emission levels and program impacts, and this uncertainty becomes greater with longer forecast periods. The results of this evaluation of CCAP represent a best estimate. They are also based on the assumption that programs will continue to be funded at current funding levels. ** Includes Waste Wise, NICE3, and USDA's Expansion of Recycling Technology. Energy savings and sequestration are scored separately. *** Energy savings and N2O savings are scored separately. + Additional forestry initiatives by electric utilities are included in Climate Challenge, a Foundation Program. ++ Foundation action partners provide additional reductions in almost all sectors and gases. These values only represent incremental savings not accounted for in other actions or baseline activities. +++ For the Climate Challenge program, there is considerable uncertainty at this time in quantifying impacts beyond the year 2000, largely because partners' Climate Challenge plans do not currently extend beyond 2000.Given that participation levels are growing and that most utilities appear to be meeting or expanding upon their commitments to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, it is reasonable to expect that the Climate Challenge program will deliver more significant reductions.

Research and Systematic Observation

The U.S. government has dedicated significant resources to research on global

climate change. U.S. research efforts (some of which include the private

sector) are divided into several general categories, including prediction of

climate change, impacts and adaptation, mitigation and new technologies, and

socioeconomic analysis and assessment. In addition, U.S. scientists actively

coordinate with research and capacity-building efforts in other countries.

The principal vehicle for undertaking climate change research at the federal

level is the United States Global Change Research Program. The multiagency

program was funded in fiscal year 1997 at approximately $1.8 billion. A

significant portion of the Research Program's activities is targeted at

improving capabilities to predict climate change, including the human-induced

contribution to climate change, and its implications for society and the

environment. The United States also is committed to continuing programs in

research and observation, with the aim of developing the information base

required to improve predictions of climate change and its repercussions, as

well as the ability to reduce emissions while sustaining food production,

ecosystems, and economic development.

Extensive efforts also are being made to understand the consequences of

climate change, regional impacts, and the potential for adaptation. Another

area being explored by researchers is the development of technologies that

would enable the United States to supply energy, food, water, ecosystem

services, and a healthy environment to U.S. citizens, while simultaneously

reducing greenhouse gas emissions. These efforts have been divided into

short- and longer-term projects involving the private sector, as well as

government-sponsored research.

Perhaps most notable in the international component of the research effort is

U.S. participation in IPCC work. U.S. scientists participated in the

preparation and review of nearly all of the more than 100 chapters of the

over 2,000-page report. Researchers also participated in the collection and

analysis of the underlying data through programs as varied as the World

Climate Research Program, the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change

Program, the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme and an impressive

array of bilateral scientific and technical work.

The Future

Overall, the conclusions to be drawn from this report can be summarized in

three parts:

· Climate change is a clearly defined problem and is well recognized

at the highest levels in the U.S. government. Senior officials (from the

President to heads of cabinet agencies and departments) have taken a strong

stand in favor of seeking to reduce emissions.

· The combined effort to address climate change (described in this

report, and including the Research Program, the total costs of U.S.

mitigation actions, and the international effort) are in excess of $2

billion--a significant step by any standard.

· Notwithstanding this effort, emissions continue to grow. More

aggressive actions must be taken to combat the threat of climate change.

The United States is developing a long-term, post-2000 strategy to address

the climate change problem. This effort, which has both a multilateral,

international focus and a domestic focus, is expected to be made public in

the next few months. It will be based on an extensive analytic effort to

assess the effects of an array of additional policy choices, including

setting legally binding, internationally agreed caps on emissions. It will

consider the advantages of market-based instruments for both domestic and

international emissions trading, as well as joint implementation for credit

with developing countries. It will consider approaches to be taken for gases

for which monitoring and measurement are relatively simple (e.g., for carbon

dioxide emissions from stationary energy sources), as well as those gases for

which emissions are more difficult to measure (such as nitrous oxides from

agriculture).

Currently underway, the effort is intensive and time-consuming. It involves

more than twenty agencies within the federal government, as well as several

offices in the Executive Office of the President. Congress will be consulted

in the development of policies and will most likely need to enact legislation

to implement any agreed program. A significant stakeholder outreach program

will be undertaken over the next several months to engage the best thinking

on alternative approaches, and following adoption of a program to ensure

maximum compliance with the course of action chosen.

Ö www.state.gov

Ö Global Warming International Center